Countries across the world have agreed to implementation of green technologies to meet with global emissions targets in the historic Paris agreement, but a new study has found the need for quickening the implementation otherwise we will not be able to meet with the global emissions targets.
Researchers at Duke University have calculated that if we will not be able to meet with climate change goals set by the Paris Agreement unless we speed up the spread of clean technology by a full order of magnitude, or about ten times faster than in the past. This calls for implementation of radical new strategies at a global scale and at unprecedented rates if we need to achieve current emissions goals.
To calculate the pace at which global per-capita emissions of carbon dioxide have increased since the Second Industrial Revolution, researchers used delayed differential equations. The Second Industrial Revolution was a period of rapid industrialization at the end of the 19th century and start of the 20th. The researchers then compared this pace to the speed of new innovations in low-carbon-emitting technologies.
Using these historical trends coupled with projections of future global population growth, Manoli and his colleagues were able to estimate the likely pace of future emissions increases and also determine the speed at which climate-friendly technological innovation and implementation must occur to hold warming below the Paris Agreement’s 2o C target.
Researchers, in their study published in journal Earth’s Future, warn that having just emissions-reducing technologies aren’t enough now and now we need to use technologies that can be scaled up and spread globally at unprecedented speeds.
The analysis shows that per-capita CO2 emissions have increased about 100 percent every 60 years — typically in big jumps — since the Second Industrial Revolution. This “punctuated growth” has occurred largely because of time lags in the spread of emission-curbing technological advances, which are compounded by the effects of rapid population growth.