It has been years since the world started talking about the dangers of climate change and global warming. We keep hoping for a miraculous recovery, for a change that would be the thing that saves us. However, we keep forgetting that if we don’t actually do anything to make that change happen, it won’t come.
Recently, there have been indications that we only have three years left actually, to reduce our carbon emissions significantly if we want to make sure that the global warming limits itself at 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial temperatures. This is what has been frequently cited as a threshold of sorts, where the global warming actually starts to be dangerous to the planet. However, this is also open to interpretation and further complicates things.
There have been various studies lately that seem to indicate that the global warming has started before the preindustrial period. This means that our optimistic hopes for a 3-year span to reduce our emissions is even shorter than that.
Two studies in particular were published recently, which don’t share the enthusiasm we hope to see. There seems to be extremely little chance that the world is going to be able to follow guidelines to reduce carbon emissions in which case there is literally no way of reversing the impending consequences. There were various trends that were taken into account in these studies which are all showing how the median warming will likely be 3.2 degrees Celsius and 5% chance that we could maybe limit it to 2 degrees.
This is unbelievably bad news especially for small islands which are more vulnerable in this scenario, considering the sea levels rising in the case of the scenario becoming true.
Adrian Raftery the statistician of the University of Washington in Seattle who conducted the study, which was just published in Nature Climate Change, alongside colleagues at the University of California, Santa Barbara and Upstart Networks, commented: “There is a lot of uncertainty about the future, our analysis does reflect that, but it also does reflect that the more optimistic scenarios that have been used in targets seem quite unlikely to occur.”